TL;DR
Trepa is a different type of prediction market. Instead of choosing between two outcomes, you predict the exact BTC price. Payouts increase with prediction accuracy.
V3 launches on July 28 with a redesigned interface and updated payout logic based on user feedback.
Why the focus on accuracy, again?
Trepa is built on the conviction that humans are fascinated with watching and attempting feats of strength (Eddie Hall), speed (Usain Bolt), intelligence (Magnus Carlsen), but also accuracy.
There exists ample evidence for accuracy as entertainment. For example, The Price Is Right is a US TV series running non-stop since 1972 where contestants try to out-predict others by naming the price of consumer goods as accurately as possible. Then there is GeoGuessr, a geography game in which players try to pinpoint exact locations from Google Street View imagery. We have also all seen Yusuf Dikeç effortlessly lift his air pistol and hit a bullseye during the last Olympics. Lastly, open TikTok and you’re guaranteed to come across viral trick shot videos that have taken the creator thousands of attempts for millions of views.
We also strongly believe that current (binary) prediction markets operate with painful informational losses for continuous outcomes, i.e. outcomes that are numbers like asset prices (BTC, ETH, SOL, equities, commodities, FX, compute), but also things like GDP, trade balances, non-farm payrolls, and public debt. The phenomenon is called discretization, wherein the continuous outcome is sliced into halves or into buckets (ranges). A good example is the 5-minute BTC up/down market on Polymarket where traders predict whether BTC’s price will beat its previous close price from 5 minutes ago. This market is popular due to its conceptual simplicity. At the same time, however, its structural design involving binary outcome tokens also forces convictions into a yes-or-no answer which limits expressivity and a more granular information collection.
Okay, so how does Trepa work?
Every round takes 1 minute: 30 seconds to place your prediction, then 30 seconds to watch and see how close the price lands. You set a target (green line) for where you think the price will be when the round ends, then watch the live price (orange line) to see how close you got. Unlike yes/no markets like Polymarket or Kalshi, there’s no side to pick, just your best prediction of the number.
Once predictions lock, the watch phase begins. Trepa shows you a live payout curve and a payout amount that updates in real time as the price moves. The closer the price gets to your target, the bigger your payout.
Small improvements near your target matter more. More specifically, your payout is a function of a convex accuracy score relative to others. What this means is that if the outcome moves a bit closer to your target, it has a disproportionate positive effect on your accuracy score. Your share of the prize pool is then derived from your accuracy score pro-rata. You can never lose more than half your stake.
Trepa’s V3 is an entirely new take on prediction UI/UX that cannot be copied by a trading-focused app like Polymarket/Kalshi without abandoning their orderbook.
Where do I play?
On trepa.app, every day from 1-2pm UTC, starting July 28th, 2026.
We run one communal hour because everyone has to be playing at the same moment for the prize pool to be worth entering, and we would rather run full pools for one hour than empty ones all day. Eventually, the plan is to scale rounds to tens of thousands of concurrent players, and make Trepa the largest real-time asset price accuracy contest in the world.
Where Trepa is headed next
Of course, we want to eventually expand to other crypto assets beyond BTC like SOL, HYPE, as well as equities (think NVDA, SKHY), commodities (OIL, GOLD), FX (EUR/USD), and even compute.
Moreover, we’re currently working hard on our partner program (similar to “Builder Codes”) where third-party frontends integrate the Trepa app. We’re essentially working on bringing Trepa into your favorite CEX, DEX, wallet, and trading aggregators.
Call to action
Turn on notifications for https://x.com/trepa_io to see our launch video on July 28th.
Sign up for Trepa at trepa.app and pre-deposit USDC on Solana.
Then on the 28th of July, 1-2pm UTC, test your precision intuition on Trepa, either on mobile or desktop, and share your wins with us by tagging @trepa_io on X (Twitter).
The Trepa team 🫶🏼.
Dm pls
Collab please 🙏